Investigation into the Use of the Houston-Galveston Region Input-Output Model to Make Employment Projections to 1980



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State of Texas Office of the Governor Office of Information Services


The study's purpose was to develop a procedure for using a regional Input-Output Model in projecting employment for 1980. Time series of U.S./Texas ratios of labor productivity coefficients were tested for significant trends. Consistent trends were not found, thus national coefficients were used. The Input-Output Model is applied to 1980 regional final demand estimates to derive their 1980 employment requirements. Increased exports of chemicals, petroleum products, and mining machinery sectors imply related increases between 1967 and 1980 in regional portions of national output, with corresponding gains in the percentage of projected national employment in these regional sectors by one-third to three-quarters. Changes in construction sectors influence final demand when added increased sales to projections based on increased exports of chemicals, petroleum products, and mining machinery sectors, resulting in increases in employment in 1967-1980 of 28 percent in regional totals, 33 percent in manufacturing and major increases in non-commodity industry groups. Percentage increase in trade sectors is lower than trade employment projections in analogous B.E.A. estimates.


87 pages


interindustry analysis, labor, employment, regional economics, input-output models