Powell ENHofmann EKlinck JDekshenieks M2010-02-152010-02-151995 199http://hdl.handle.net/1969.3/23004-A coupled hydrodynamics/population dynamics model has been developed to assess the impact of reduced freshwater inflow into Galveston Bay in the first 50 years of the next century on oyster production in the bay. Simulations were run for the present-day hydrology and the 2024 and 2049 hydrologies predicted by the Texas Water Plan. The results of simulations of low, mean, and high freshwater inflow years show that Galveston Bay oyster populations decline in abundance by 50 to 90% depending upon the hydrology used. Oyster populations decline because of increased disease (Perkinsus marinus) intensity produced by the upestuary movement of the isohalines and because of reduced scope for growth and increased mortality associated with reduced salinities downestuary of the San Jacinto River produced by the freshwater diversion. The simulations indicate that a change in the route of freshwater inflow into Galveston Bay is even more detrimental to the bay's oyster populations that is a reduction of freshwater inflow into the bayabundanceASW,USA,Texas,Galveston BayBivalviadiseasesEnvironmental impactGalveston BaygrowthHydrodynamicsHydrologyInflowlong-term changesmodellingMortalityoyster fisheriesOystersP 1000 MARINE POLLUTIONPerkinsus marinuspopulation dynamicsPopulationsQ5 01521 Mechanical and natural changesriver engineeringSalinitySalinity effectsShellfishsimulationSW 4070 Ecological impact of water developmentTexasUSAUSA,Texas,Galveston BaywaterCONF