An economic base analysis of the Gulf coast state planning region: employment and population forecasts, 1975 - 2000




University of Texas at Austin, Bureau of Business Research

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University of Texas at Austin, Bureau of Business Research


This report is an update to the 1968 study conducted by the Bureau of Business Research of The University of Texas at Austin and the Industrial Economics Division of Texas A&M University, which was entitled the Galveston Bay Area Economic Base Study. The objectives of this report are to produce long-term forecasts of employment and population growth for the region. The two reports differ in that 1) the original report made forecasts to the year 2020 while the updated report stops at the year 2000 and 2) five additional counties have been added to the Houston-Galveston Area Council region since the original report was produced. The shift that has occurred in the economic base since the last study has been analyzed and a more sophisticated methodology, the linkage of an economic base analysis with a population - cohort - survival model, has been employed. Population forecasts by county, sex, and age were required as were employment forecasts by county and by industrial sector.


126 pgs.


economic growth, population dynamics, population forecasting, employment forecasting, gulf region, economic conditions