Brown Shrimp Harvest Prediction - Western Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

Each year the NMFS Galveston Laboratory frecasts the future annual harvest of brown shrimp from the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana and Texas. Prediction of the Louisiana catch is based largely on the regression between May's inshore plus offshore catch and the catch for June through the next May offshore. The predicted value may be adjusted up or down depending on the acreage of inundated estuarine marsh that was available in the spring, and on the relative abundance of juvenile brown shrimp caught during spring sampling at Jamaica Beach on Galveston Island, Texas. The Texas prediction is based largely on the Baxter Bait Shrimp Index (BBSI) which has long been the standard forecasting model and has provided accurate predictions over the past 30 years. Some other methods examined for their predictive potentials have included estuarine marsh sampling of juvenile shrimp, monitoring the recruitment of PIs, and assessments of potential predator population impacts on juvenile brown shrimp.